On Randomness & Uncertainty
This morning, again, with notebook in hand, I have an enduring sense of the unknown and forever-changing energies around me.
(I don’t know exactly why I write but one of the reasons might be to capture and translate some of such forces)
To give a name to the possible reality of something is at least to tame it, to create a relationship with it or to surrender to it’s overpowering potential at times, at least. It seems to me, as someone that writes daily in some shape or form, that the uncertainty of things always remains.
Today, for instance, the weather is bright, blue, inviting but also busy, icy, cold, biting - as the morning persists, minute by minute, my response to it changes as IT changes. I have my own internal ‘weather’ too of course; emotions, thoughts, feelings, organic processes, at least partly unconscious and devoid of my outright control. And so we are like two dynamic, changing forms, relating to one another haphazardly each second.
My past experience of my own weather patterns, and those outside, are helpful to a degree but also not. The past speaks little of the future in certain domains and in certain contexts, and speaks even less than that at times also.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb explores this topic widely (and humourously) in his wonderful book: Fooled By Randomness. We are more random than we think, and the world around us even more so! Never, in today’s climate, has it been more important to take a step back, listen, feel and observe, before starting our day…
And so this is how I start my days: writing, reading or both. It’s an age-old technique of installing something positively ‘concrete’ into the mind-body before the rest of the day gets thrown into the wind.
That sense of control may be an illusion but it works, just like avoiding the news eliminates many of the tragic things it’s broadcasting about. Out of sight, out of mind. We have to narrow down our realms of randomness in this world of ours, simply to survive and in order to thrive.
This is the best conclusion I can come up with moment at least…
As for the extremes of life - those ‘black swans’ that wipe away everything we definitely-absolutely-thought we knew would happen - then much of life is subconsciously spent preparing for such possibilities anyhow I notice. Health insurance policies, supplement subscriptions, gym memberships, bulletproof car windows, double glazed doors etc…
We largely prepare for the unlikely (or impossible) - and in return we get to concern ourselves with ‘higher’ things; things our intellectual curiosities, dexterous bodies and/or simple boredom might lead us towards. That is until the random reality of (almost) everything shakes it all up again.
What delightful illusions we love to lead: that our Instagram followers will only keep increasing, that our favourite guitar won’t mould or it’s strings wear out, that the joy of a first big pay check will repeat itself each month, or that that listful attraction between you and yours date is here to stay.
Time is the only real truth teller. And it is only Time that ever really tells. For better or for worse…
Time eventually allows all the sequences of potential (random) events to occur. And so our awareness of reality is limited only by our mortality and our patience when (or before) acting, let’s say. A life of a hundred years will never be exposed to all realities, thus we’re destined to never know or experience certain things. That being said, a conscious, sensitive and/or disciplined person can pick up a lot from his/her surroundings, daily events and interactions… much more than we might otherwise think.
One doesn’t need expertise in this life, after all; just a certain amount of awareness.
“There is nothing to know”, as Rick Rubin emphasises in his book ‘The Creative Act’; or rather, to know is to not know; or furthermore: “the further you go, the less you know” (Lao Tzu, from The Tao Te Ching).
A curious mind, and an open mind, is one without knowledge, without truth and without ‘Fact’, and only a curious mind will detect the random, unexpected nuances impacting oneself. Then, again, the challenge will be to empty oneself of new associations, new patterns and rules, and to start all over again. There are wonderful surprises, friendships, lessons and delights awaiting the ever-beginner’s mind.
These gains can be to the extent of ‘winnings’ from randomness; meaning that one can literally gain from unexpected things happening, as appose to being fooled (or financially ruined) by it. This is called being Anti-Fragile (gaining from disorder) - as appose to being Fragile (the opposite).
In a simple way, being content and fulfilled with nothing - no fixed schedule, no grand possessions, no recognised achievements or esteemed identity etc - itself brings a sense of anti-fragility. For life WILL bring it’s own demands, curiosities, adventures and dramas, and meeting them with a restful and abundant mind-body will allow for a rich and learned experience often to result.
This is the ‘empty cup’ analogy, in essence - for if one can consistently empty his or her cup then they have the vast potential to be ‘ful’filled by the various occurences, events and inevitable surprises of life.
In other domains, such as finance or business, being Anti-Fragile can get a bit more complicated and challenging to explain (let alone obtain!). After all, how can one ever predict the various dynamics and relationships of social trends, organisational systems, hierarchies, costs, budgets, insurances, taxes, customer demands etc. It’s a world that I largely stay away from, and feel rather Anti-Fragile (or at least robust) by doing so.
Or, who knows, maybe I’m just waiting for the right moment or opportunity to put more of my ‘skin’ in the (business) game…?
For now, however, I’ll keep enjoying my amateur hobbies, creative practices and steady ‘walking class’ job, waiting for Lady ‘Fortuna’ to strike as and when she feels like it…
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